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POLITICO Arena Question: Does SCOTUS Ruling Seal Obama’s Victory?

June 28, 2012

Absolutely not. If anything, the ruling may make President Obama’s re-election bid more difficult. It’s the gift and the curse. The right-wing is fired up and ready to go. They haven’t been this roused since TARP.  The Romney campaign is claiming it took in $1 million today alone, and it’s not even nightfall on the east coast. The GOP is going to ride Obamacare and the SCOTUS decision all the way to November. If SCOTUS had struck down the law, it would’ve activated the left and taken the thunder out of one of the GOP’s main campaign issues of the past few years.

On the other hand, the ruling is a policy victory for the Obama administration. If the Democrats can at least hold onto the Senate, then Obamacare is good money. Unfortunately, Supreme Court victories don’t energize an electorate like a defeat. Moderates are not going to sing the President’s praises because the Supreme Court said the law is mostly constitutional. In reality, the decision probably doesn’t have any bearing on how anyone actually feels about the law, and that’s what’s important. Correction – the decision probably makes opponents hate the bill even more than they did yesterday, which is no bueno. Every election from PTA to POTUS is about getting out the vote on election day, and nothing motivates quite like anger and fear.

If the Dems lose the Senate and the White House, then it’s only a matter of time before the law is repealed. In that case, a Senate filibuster might be the last stand, but even that isn’t an ironclad option.

The bottom line is that the ruling feels good right now, but it won’t quell the crimson tide looming in November.


From → Commentary

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